Unemployment Rate and Yield Curve Inversion as Recession Signals

 

Fascinating analysis by the St. Louis Fed on the reliability of the two economic indicators forecasting recessions in the US:

Source: Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs

Source: Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs

 

And the paper’s conclusion:

Overall, both indicators tend to be reliable signals of a coming recession. But as with all recession signals, the wise economic analysts should examine many indicators rather than betting the farm on one or two. (Source: Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs)

 

Webcasts/Podcasts

DoubleLine – Just Markets January 9

S3 E6 – Morris Chen, Portfolio Mgr – CMBS & CRE – DoubleLine, The Sherman Show

Retail Contrarians, with Sorin Capital’s Jim Higgins and Tom Digan [Invest Like the Best Ep. 68]

Episode #96: Craig Leupold & Jim Sullivan, “From a Commercial Property Standpoint, We See Values Drifting Sideways Over the Next 12 Months”

MBS ETFs: Simplifying Mortgage Investing

CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Quarterly Webinar with David Hay (April 2018)