This is my favorite chart from Friday’s links:
Source: Bonds Could Be The Catalyst To Take Stocks Much Higher
While REITs have held up pretty well recently, the 10y yield recently broke out of the triangle pictured above and is now above 3%.
Will this be a game changer for REITs? I have no idea, but the 10y yield is definitely an important indicator to watch.
Disclosure: We have no positions in KRE or IYR. We are long VNQ.
The 10 year US yield is at an important level:
Source: Interest Rates; 20-Year Breakout Test In Play
This is probably the biggest surprise to me this year, UK REITs breaking out of their downtrend to new year-to-date highs. This is a decent december!
This breakout is definitely one to watch at the start of 2018.
Disclosure: We don’t have any positions in IUKP.
At the end of the year 2017 this two made me think hard about potential opportunities in real estate:
A Barron’s article about opportunities in retail REITs:
Shopping for REITs -The hard-hit sector looks ahead to a brighter 2018.
An awesome podcast by Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s Invest Like The Best on liquid real estate investing:
Retail Contrarians, with Sorin Capital’s Jim Higgins and Tom Digan [Invest Like the Best Ep. 68]
They made me dig up this chart from Bloomberg:
Maybe it is the end of the retail apocalypse? Or just a year-end short covering rally?
We’ll see it next year how this story will unfold, but the above chart of Bloomberg’s Regional Mall index is telling you that:
- The recent downtrend has probably turned,
- The low was made on a burst of volume,
- Which might signal a selling climax.
This is all for now, happy new year to everyone!
Disclosure: We are long US REITs through VNQ and IYR.
This is interesting, VNQ is at the upper end of its traing range:
If it breaks out it could be a meaningful move after such a long trading range.
Disclosure: We are long VNQ.
10y German yield versus iShares European Property Yield ETF (IPRP NA):
Disclosure: We are long IPRP