Unemployment Rate and Yield Curve Inversion as Recession Signals

 

Fascinating analysis by the St. Louis Fed on the reliability of the two economic indicators forecasting recessions in the US:

Source: Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs

Source: Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs

 

And the paper’s conclusion:

Overall, both indicators tend to be reliable signals of a coming recession. But as with all recession signals, the wise economic analysts should examine many indicators rather than betting the farm on one or two. (Source: Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs)

 

World Economic Outlook – Gaining Momentum?

The IMF published its growth update – this time they revised slightly upwards their estimate of global GDP growth for 2017 driven by Advanced Economies.

The outlook is better for the Euro Area, Japan, and the UK, while for the US and Canada it is unchanged/negligible.

A couple of emerging market economies were also given a better growth outlook: China, Russia, and Brazil.

Source:  World Economic Outlook 2017 Apr Update