This is an interesting chart from Chris Kimble:
I am not entirely convinced that the US Homebuilding industry should plunge based on the retreat of lumber futures, but it is worth keeping an eye on this important commodity.
Disclosure: We are long ITB, but have no positions in lumber.
This is from Stocktwits:
Having finished compliance stuff for MiFidII and PRIIPs, let’s take a review of the year that passed.
I couldn’t have written a better memo myself than the guys at Hoya Capital: REITs End 2017 On High Note
What’s more, they have also collected the 2017 returns for the most important US real estate sectors and ETFs:
Source: REITs End 2017 On High Note
So I’m just going to present some charts here that are worth watching in 2018…
- VNQ, alias Vanguard REIT ETF which covers the US REIT sector without cell towers was rangebound all year swinging between 80 and 86 and closing almost where it started the year:
I’ve plotted two indicators on the chart as a textbook example of the usage of the oscillators and the Bollinger Bands. Oscillators (here the Stochastic) can best be used in trading ranges, where one sells when the indicator line closes below a standard reading (say 70 or 80), and buys when crosses above a certain level (30 or 20). So when the oscillator has a high reading one should look for the exit, and when it is low one should look for an entry. In trending markets the reverse is usually true: high readings (or closing above a certain level) are signs of strength, while low readings are signs of weakness.
The same is true for Bollinger Bands: in rangebound markets, one sells when price closes above the upper band, and buys when price closes below the lower band, basically a mean-reverting strategy. In trending markets the reverse is true: in a strong trend price usually “hugs” the lower/upper band, and travels in the same direction for an extended period.
In this case, out of several technical trading strategies, the one using Bollinger Bands generated the highest total return (almost 43%), while buy-and-hold was essentially 0. The popular MACD and various moving average strategies (50 and 20 days) generated negative returns.
This is from Bloomberg’s backtesting functionality for VNQ and 2017:
The lower panel shows the cumulative PnLs for different strategies, where the one using Bollinger Bands stands out as a clear outperformer.
And this is how the various real estate sector ETFs’ 2017 performance looks like:
The performance differences (which are huge) can be traced back to the inclusion of the cell tower segment (see this post for further details).
- XHB (Homebuilders ETF) and ITB (Home Construction ETF) were the stars of the year, easily leaving behind every other vehicle in 2017. They have correlated better with the rising large-cap equities, while REITs acted like a bond proxy.
What a year this was for this sector! I’ve added the same two indicators to stress the point of using the proper indicator for a given market environment. For these trending ETFs, one would have sold early and never would have gotten back in time to profit from this trend. In other words, the previous strategies (oscillators and Bollinger Bands) were not successful in this trending environment. So what was successful? The easiest strategy:
In the lower panel of the above chart, you can see that those strategies that worked for VNQ didn’t work here, and those that generated losses there made outsized gains here.
The upshot is that you should apply your trading/investing strategy to the appropriate market environment.
- Finally, let’s look at the performance of the mortgage-backed bonds market represented by REM, iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF:
This chart shows us a trending move until mid-year, when it started a lengthy consolidation. Being composed of mortgage-backed bonds, it is more or less the mirror image of the 10 year Treasury bond’s yield:
This is for the US market regarding the past, I’ll come back shortly with a review of international real estate.
Disclosure: We are long VNQ, IYR, XHB and ITB.
The homebuilder ETF (XHB) and the home construction ETF (ITB) have perfectly bounced from support, which was mentioned a few days ago here.
Here is the visual update of the same charts:
It looks like the proposed tax reform is not that bad for these companies at the end of the day. ITB still looks stronger than XHB, it almost climbed to a new year-to-date high.
Disclosure: We are long ITB and XHB.
Homebuilders and home construction companies got hammered today in the US. The cause of the decline was the proposed new tax reform package, and especially the changes to the mortgage interest deduction rules (see here and here).
The broader homebuilding industry represented by the XHB ETF and the home construction companies represented by the ITB ETF declined by 2.48% and 2.43% respectively. This is possibly their biggest one-day move year-to-date.
Let’s see their daily charts:
The XHB trended nicely all year, and from end of August it started to outperform the broader market (lower panel). Today’s decline found support at the lower end of a small retracement in October. There is also a rising trendline – when connecting the August and September lows – acting as support.
What’s worrying is the negative divergence between the price and the MACD and Stochastic indicators, which normally is a sign of trend exhaustion. Also on the lower panel the relative strength line broke a short-term rising trendline, indicating weakness versus the broader market.
The home construction ETF looks a tad better, today’s decline found support at a rising short-term trendline, there is no clear divergence between the indicators and the price, while the rising trendline in the lower panel is still in play for the relative strength ratio. What’s striking is the Stochastic that has been above the overbought level since the beginning of September, and this time it really signaled strength than an opportunity to sell.
Tomorrow is going to be interesting for both ETFs, whether these support levels hold or there is more downside to come.
Disclosure: We are long ITB and XHB.